Question 5

MCQMEDIUM

Suppose that Box I contains 6 red balls and 9 green balls, and Box II contains 8 red balls and 12 green balls. All the balls of Box I and Box II are mixed together and a ball is chosen at random from them. Let E1E_1 be the event that the ball chosen belonged to Box I and let E2E_2 be the event that the ball chosen belonged to Box II. Let F1F_1 be the event that the ball chosen is red and let F2F_2 be the event that the ball chosen is green. Then which of the following statements is (are) TRUE?

(A)

The events E1E_1 and F1F_1 are independent

(B)

The events E2E_2 and F2F_2 are dependent

(C)

The conditional probability P(F1∣E1)P(F_1 | E_1) is equal to the conditional probability P(F1∣E2)P(F_1 | E_2)

(D)

The conditional probability P(F1∣E1)P(F_1 | E_1) is greater than the conditional probability P(F2∣E2)P(F_2 | E_2)

Detailed Solution

The total number of balls in Box I is 6+9=156 + 9 = 15. The total number of balls in Box II is 8+12=208 + 12 = 20. When mixed, the total number of balls is 3535.

Calculate the basic probabilities:

P(E1)=1535=37P(E_1) = \frac{15}{35} = \frac{3}{7}

P(E2)=2035=47P(E_2) = \frac{20}{35} = \frac{4}{7}

Total red balls F1=6+8=14F_1 = 6 + 8 = 14, so P(F1)=1435=25P(F_1) = \frac{14}{35} = \frac{2}{5}.

Total green balls F2=9+12=21F_2 = 9 + 12 = 21, so P(F2)=2135=35P(F_2) = \frac{21}{35} = \frac{3}{5}.

Analyze the options:

(A) P(E1∩F1)P(E_1 \cap F_1) is the probability the ball is from Box I and is red, which is 635\frac{6}{35}.

Since P(E1)×P(F1)=37×25=635P(E_1) \times P(F_1) = \frac{3}{7} \times \frac{2}{5} = \frac{6}{35}, the events are independent. Statement (A) is TRUE.

(B) P(E2∩F2)P(E_2 \cap F_2) is the probability the ball is from Box II and is green, which is 1235\frac{12}{35}.

Since P(E2)×P(F2)=47×35=1235P(E_2) \times P(F_2) = \frac{4}{7} \times \frac{3}{5} = \frac{12}{35}, the events are independent. Statement (B) is FALSE.

(C) P(F1∣E1)=615=25P(F_1 | E_1) = \frac{6}{15} = \frac{2}{5} and P(F1∣E2)=820=25P(F_1 | E_2) = \frac{8}{20} = \frac{2}{5}. They are equal. Statement (C) is TRUE.

(D) P(F1∣E1)=25=0.4P(F_1 | E_1) = \frac{2}{5} = 0.4 and P(F2∣E2)=1220=0.6P(F_2 | E_2) = \frac{12}{20} = 0.6. 0.40.4 is not greater than 0.60.6. Statement (D) is FALSE.

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